How to estimate your federal tax refund
A refund generally results when federal payments and refundable credits exceed your total federal tax. If the tax is greater, the difference is an estimated balance due.
- Add annual federal taxable wages, ordinary income and net business profit.
- Subtract eligible income adjustments, including the deductible half of regular self-employment tax.
- Apply the standard or eligible itemized deduction and any entered, allowed Schedule 1-A and QBI deductions.
- Apply the selected year's progressive rates, then eligible nonrefundable credits, SE tax and applicable Additional Medicare tax.
- Compare total tax with federal withholding, estimated payments and automatic plus entered refundable credits.
A reproducible 2026 example
A single filer under 65 has $60,000 of federal taxable wages, $6,000 withheld, no other income and no credits. The $16,100 standard deduction leaves $43,900 taxable. Tax is $1,240 on the first $12,400 plus $3,780 on the next $31,500: $5,020 estimated income tax and a $980 estimated refund. This uses the rate schedule; filing tax tables may differ slightly. The example button loads these fictional figures.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 2026 calculator for my 2025 return?
No. Select the year the income was earned. Income earned in 2025 generally goes on a return filed in 2026; 2026 income generally goes on a return filed in 2027. Do not mix one year's income with another year's brackets.
Does it automatically include child tax credit or EITC?
Yes. Complete the eligibility questions and child counts; the calculator applies the selected year’s income limits and estimates child tax credit, additional child tax credit and EITC automatically. EITC can apply without children. Other credits and special situations may require fuller tax software.
Can I use my latest pay stub?
Yes. Select the pay-stub projection option, enter YTD federal taxable wages and withholding, then expected taxable wages, withholding and the number of remaining paychecks. Use separate spouse figures on a joint return. Adjust for bonuses, job changes or unpaid weeks.
Can a 1099 contractor use this?
For simple sole-proprietor profit, yes. Enter annual business receipts and allowable expenses. Regular self-employment tax and its deductible half are calculated separately for each spouse. Enter any allowed QBI deduction from the applicable worksheet. Business losses and more complex business returns are outside this calculator.
Will this file my taxes or tell me when my refund arrives?
No. This is a free planning calculator. It does not prepare or file a return, check an IRS account, or predict a deposit date. Use the IRS refund-status service after filing.
Sources & calculation limits
Rules checked October 23, 2026. Uses 2025 and 2026 federal rate schedules and standard deductions; the 92.35% Schedule SE earnings factor, $400 SE threshold, annual Social Security limits, and Additional Medicare thresholds. Automatic child and earned income credits use your eligibility answers, Schedule 8812 limits and published EITC phase-in/phaseout parameters. Other credits, QBI, Schedule 1-A and other entered deductions require separate eligibility review. Results are rounded to cents for planning and can differ from whole-dollar filing forms and IRS tax tables.
- IRS federal rates and brackets
- 2026 inflation adjustments and updated 2025 standard deductions
- Publication 505: estimated tax and self-employment worksheets
- Schedule SE instructions
- Additional Medicare tax
- IRS Tax Withholding Estimator