Published October 29, 2026 · Educational payroll guide
Use your latest pay stub to gather year-to-date federal income-tax withholding and wage information, then combine it with expected remaining pay, other income, deductions and credits for the same tax year. Your pay stub is an input to the estimate, not a complete tax return or a guaranteed refund amount.
First decide which year you are estimating
Distinguish the tax year from the year you file. A 2025 return generally concerns 2025 income and payments, even if you prepare it in 2026. To project 2026, use 2026 records and a tool whose rules support that year. Do not carry a prior-year result forward without updating the assumptions.
Open the tax refund calculator and check its supported year and limitations first. For an in-year withholding review, the IRS estimator is another option for eligible users. Neither result replaces your filed return.
Gather these records before starting
- The latest statement from each current job and the final statement or W-2 for any job that ended during the year.
- Federal income-tax withholding year to date, plus any separately shown extra federal income-tax withholding. Exclude state tax, Social Security and Medicare from this entry.
- Current gross pay, federal taxable-wage information where available, pay frequency and the number of actual remaining paydays.
- Expected bonuses, other taxable income, estimated tax payments and relevant records for a spouse when filing jointly.
- The filing status, deductions and credits that apply to the year being estimated. Review the tool’s exclusions for situations it does not cover.
Project withholding without counting a paycheck twice
A practical starting point is: federal income tax already withheld plus expected federal withholding on remaining payments. Count only paydays that have not yet been included in the YTD balance. If future pay or elections will change, model those payments separately.
For example, assume fictional YTD federal income-tax withholding of $3,600 after the latest payment, with six future checks expected to withhold $200 each. Projected withholding is $3,600 + (6 × $200) = $4,800. Do not add the latest check’s $200 again if it is already included in $3,600. This is a payments projection; it does not calculate the annual tax or refund.
Estimate annual tax separately
Annual tax depends on more than withholding. Enter the annual income, deductions and credits requested by the tool. YTD gross pay may differ from W-2 Box 1, so do not treat every gross-pay field as federal taxable wages or deduct the same pre-tax contribution twice.
Compare projected payments with the completed annual tax estimate. Our withholding, liability and refund guide explains that relationship. A balance-due result may also need a separate penalty review.
When your last pay stub is not enough
One statement may omit a prior employer, spouse’s pay, investment or business income, or a later payroll correction. Even a final December statement can differ from year-end tax reporting. Use the employer’s final tax documents and any corrected versions when preparing the return; investigate differences with payroll.
Which tool should I use?
Use the federal withholding calculator for a supported regular-paycheck scenario. Use an annual refund estimator for the year-wide question. To understand the current and YTD columns before entering them, read what year-to-date means. Changing a calculator input does not change your employer’s withholding.
Official references
IRS Publication 505, projected withholding worksheets · IRS estimator FAQs · IRS estimator eligibility and preparation
General educational information, not individualized payroll, tax or legal advice. Examples are fictional. Confirm important decisions using current official guidance and your payroll records.